Petrol bombs in Carrickfergus

 

It is so sad to read this. Petrol bombs in Carrickfergus. This is where my Grandfather was born. This is where the Forsythe family really got into money making, in the 19th century. The Forsythe's have ever been pragmaticists and traders, not ideologues. They have also been internationalists. Family members, close family members live in Spain, Canada and Chile. Despite being born in Norfolk, my love blossomed in Dumbarton. Since 1986 my life has been led in crossing constantly (until March 2020) a Border that should be of no consequence. Many warned on this account (so John Batts) constantly of the perils posed to peace by Brexit. Because I am not an ideologue I recognise problems with the EU. And yes it would appear Leave more so than Remain has a stronger suite over the vaccine. But to take either of those options is ridiculous because what is at stake is the precious unity of the British Isles. Those who don't see that because Westminster is unimpressive the best solution is to rat on it and on the English leave me cold. Everyone in these islands are one British kith and kin. It is called geography and it is nuts to try and escape it just as it is nuts to try and escape Europe as our most significant trading partner. In the EU we had a deal better than Germany's but the ideologues and purveyors of division could not see it. So whether you are a Scottish Nationalist or an English one you both are one of a kind. Violence is no solution and compromise and renewal in faith in hope are the only ways forward.

BBC.CO.UK

Police attacked during fresh night of NI violence

Petrol bombs are thrown at officers in Carrickfergus and a car is set alight in Londonderry.

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Boris on Scotland

You will remember how Jeremy Corbyn came along and dismembered Scottish Labour with his attitude to devolution. To me it is no surprise at all that Boris Johnson did the same yesterday with his ill judged comments about devolution. This morning on R4 it was left to wise old Malcolm Rifkind to try to make some sense of it all. However so far no-one has tackled the elephant in the room. It is BREXIT. Guy Opperman had me telling the citizens of Hawick in 2014 that the only way to stay in the EU was to stay in the British Union. I am never going to forget that, as two years later that was swept down the pan. Support for EU membership, admiration for Sturgeon's government style, these remain strong and now with the crucial independence vote coming next May, the SNP have been handed a silver salver. Westminster Tories and Islington Socialites are incapable of understanding Scotland will be the mantra. I will level: the sooner Boris is gone the better. He is an utter disaster. He cannot manage social distancing in his own home, told to isolate, he opens his mouth on devolution! I am not keen on Scottish independence but Scotland is quite entitled to say our settled will was to remain in the EU and the UK government has to square that or else the UK becomes a footnote in history. It is a difficult one to square as is a Border in the Irish Sea and there are now only a few weeks in the world wide pandemic in which to do it. If we crash out to no deal on Jan 1st the resultant chaos will ensure a SNP walk over in May. Independence could easily follow even if I candidly feel it will not become a bed of economical roses. I also do feel that to insist on a referendum in 2021 when we are still reeling from Covid is rather beneath the belt. All Britons Take note, what happens between us and the EU in the next few short weeks will really affect whether you have one united union of nations to be proud of or not.

Boris' speech

Guess where I listened to R4 reporting Boris' speech this afternoon. Somewhere on the A75 near Dumfries. It was at the level of a second rate Oxford Union address. It did not deal with the questions of the moment. For months now everyone from business to the EU have pressed us (or the Tory government) "tell us what you want and how it will work?". Square the circle open freely moving borders including Ireland and whether leaving the EU means leaving the Custom's Union and the Common Market. Boris had no answers just Boris woffle. More speeches promised this week but do we really think any of them will have answers? I am not a remainer or a leaver. I am not Matthew Paris lying awake at night smarting from defeat. If you can, make Brexit work to our financial advantage; and if you can't, fess up to the nation over how ill led we have been. I say this with feeling because I spent the day in one of Europe's greatest strategic corridors. The Tyne Solway Gap aka as Hadrian's Wall aka the A69/75 Euroroute from the North Sea Ports to Ireland. And what is it like? You grind along surrounded by lorries from Italy, MacBurney's from Ballymena, who ever knows who from Donegal. You all get fouled up in the new roundabout at Dumfries Hospital. And so on and so forth. It is a dreadful route. Relatively speaking the Stanegate was more remarkable as was General Wade's Military Road from Newcastle to Portpatrick (a lot of which is the Euroroute but not all). What is the best reason for leaving the EU? Because we are not up to it. We have never been good at taking strategic benefit from it. Unlike the Irish, we don't how to get the EU to electrify derelict canal locks in the middle of nowhere. We muddle along because we love British amateurism. 18 months of planning for Brexit have demonstrated that. We genuinely have no idea from the Cabinet downwards how to deliver Brexit. And Boris did not enlighten. The next step..................................

Nationalism and geography

If you don't fancy a long read, get this: we live on one group of obviously associated offshore European islands. In our long history we have generally shared one language which is not the Continent's (although they all learn it now). This accident of geography colours most of my political thinking. Ergo I am a Unionist, end of story.

The longer version.

Not many months past we went through, yes all of us, a divisive referendum, at the end of which, there was a clear result and we were all told, that was it for a generation. In the immediate aftermath the SNP saw a growth in membership which for any modern day British political party was astronomical. That has continued, for all of which the SNP only account for a proportion of Scottish voters.

However nine months later and we have a general election. Here according to Andrew Marr this morning, the SNP look set to gain 4/5th or thereabouts of the Scottish seats at Westminster. The Labour party assert there will never be SNP members in their administration. Some form of coalition appears likely. The SNP further assert that if they can exercise power they will remove Trident from Scotland. They will then campaign for a similar result at the Scottish MSP elections in May 2016. If they can repeat the performance twice, they are now saying on that mandate they will swiftly move to a second referendum.

So why should this upset me and my life in Northumberland. To be fair there is a certain gut feeling. I was always brought up (in Norfolk) as my wife was (in Glasgow) to acknowledge I was British first and then something after that. Being British in my family always trumped being English. If I hear someone from Scotland saying their only allegiance is to Scotland it makes me wince. Do you not first and foremost belong to this one group of islands? Geography was always my strong subject. Having to choose about abandoning being British and just being English goes against every grain in my body. About the one thing I am not is Welsh (or even Cornish). Otherwise I could travel from Hampshire, through Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire, Shropshire, Airedale, Durham, Northumberland, the Eden Valley, Balsporran Cottages on the A9, Kingussie Churchyard, Slochd Summit, Elgin, Galloway, Ayrshire, Carrickfergus, Ballynure and Dublin, and in all these places say "I belong, it is my family right to belong".

Nor if you know me well, you might laugh and say you spent too long moving around Britain and anyway you only spent four years living in Ayrshire. Two things (of several) happened to me today. I spent a church lunch chatting to a Welsh gospel singer who lives in Northumberland, and sings with an Ulster accent. We were of one mind, we were not for this Nationalist stuff. Not because we are raving Anglophiles but because we are children of these islands. In our book what unifies is much more than what divides and for both our families, the common Ulster threads means we utterly understand about division.

The second thing about today is that my wife came back from lunch with some friends amongst whom there is a very gracious and talented couple. Some time ago the lady there said she wished to prepare a family history to give to our daughter Clare. Today was delivery day, four large hessian bags of immaculate research, CDs, typescript telling me almost everything I might want to know about our past since King William of Orange. What do you know, follow the paternal line and it takes you ultimately to a named, recognisable today, farm by Loch Ryan and back beyond that into Ayrshire.

The point being for innumerable people in Britain (think Corby), to divide our country into multiple states will be to wrench our personal identity apart. The Scots don't live in Scotland and the English in England. We are a multiplicity of ethnicity in a shared physical environment. That does not mean Scotland is not its own country. Our Union has been a very clever Union of four countries. One is self evidently the richest and is the gatekeeper to Europe and other trading partners. It has been in everyone's interest to balance the disparity. For the richer group to share its resources with the other. And that is what has happened. England does support the others. Who had to ride to the rescue when Ireland virtually went bankrupt less than 10 years ago?

This morning Andrew Marr interviewed a leading Scottish lady campaigner for the nationalists. She said she was not an economist, figures did not come into her calculation. This was an emotional decision for better or for worse, to shake off the imperial shackles. I just shake my head, I recognise none of this. England in 1707 did not take over Scotland in an Imperial action. The two countries agreed to a Union as it was in their financial and political best interests, but in many respects (e.g. in law and religion, each remained a distinct state). The actions that had brought this about (Darien) were largely the responsibility of Scots. But even if Darien was not a factor, the increasing economic pace of interaction would have brought Union. Through the rest of the 18th century, the Scottish enlightenment flourished. It was based on reason, it produced economic thinkers who are still read. The idea that Scotland in the 21st century should become independent on emotional rather than rational grounds makes me shudder. In the debate of the week the fiscal hole of independence has been raised by an impartial think tank. "Smear" the Nationalists shout when Miliband mentioned it. It struck me as cold reason and no smear.

I think rationality has left the debate. Something must explain why the Nationalists appeal? I cannot deny they do.  The best answer I have is three fold: Thatcher, Social Media and God. It is clear that the years of Thatcher became the years of the divide. If indeed Britain divides (virtually down the geographical middle, you do realise this, two maps one of population, one of acreage would produce astoundingly different shapes), I will not simply blame the SNP. Mrs Thatcher will shoulder a huge percentage of the blame. She broke the consensus politics, she destroyed her own party during her Prime Ministership north of the Border. She said it was fine for London and the South East to flourish without a care for the central belt of Scotland (and the North of England). I grew up in Tory Norfolk, I went rather reluctantly to private school (it did not seem to me fair or healthy even as a teenager). I found myself working in West Yorkshire through the Miner's strike in 1984. I saw the lines of police minibuses. Two years later and I was clearing out shut collieries.

In short order I moved to Scotland: Ayrshire and Clydeside 1986-1990. I saw the hopelessness of men on street corners with no work, men I actually knew. I remembered reading L T C Rolt describing Stoke on Trent after the Kerr Stuart closure in 1930. I remembered too Auden's description of Dumbarton "The flotsam at which Dumbarton Gapes and Hungers" (May 1932). I met my wife in the shipyard he knew and in 1987, it still felt bad.

Many will read this and say, there is your answer. This abandonment of the North has gone on since the 1930s and it simply cannot be endured any more. But unless a Nationalist party has real economic plans which stack up, emotionalism will not bring happiness. The lady Marr interviewed this morning seemed to be saying independence will always be more worthwhile than what we have? Why? It seems to me a major player is revenge. Westminster has "f**cked us up", well now it is payback. Behave like this and a whole island will venture into chaos.

But what fuels revenge? Can it be the abandonment of faith? All the nations of the islands pursued different faith routes since the reformation which has not been without pain itself. But on balance the faith, the mutual understanding of purpose was Christian. That is no longer the case and I wonder whether that is feeding this?

Does that mean I think Great Britain is a God given concept? I don't but I think it was a God fearing creation. Its leaders of various centuries felt they would answer to God for their stewardship. Outstanding of those is our present monarch. Take Israel. Do I think God gives land to people and says you now have the right to persecute and expel the inhabitans? No way. Jesus gave the answer. The purpose of the people of God is to show the Kingdom of Heaven on earth, it is to be exemplars. Jesus warned of what would happen to Israel if it could not see this in 30AD and his warnings were shortly fulfilled. The Romans annihilated Israel (fact). For a second time round since 1948 Israel has had the opportunity to show how to be a model nation. One for whom its treatment of all its citizens and neighbours could showcase the performance of faith. How has it got along?

I should contrast that with a tale of optimism. A tale of the shared values of the special relationship. It comes from Boston, USA and perhaps it might even be able to make me accept the bitter pill of divorce. Have you heard of the Hoyts? Good to learn about them http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_Hoyt  and http://www.teamhoyt.com/ . Are they Christians? Does that matter? I don't know and it does not. But get this, what was intended to be their final race was interupted by the bombing of the Boston marathon. Whatever else you think, one of the immense achievements of Western Liberal, Christian based thinking is that it is utterly wrong to bomb the innocent. It was wrong for the IRA to do this, it is wrong for Muslims to do it, and it was wrong for the USA to do it in South East Asia. However the future goes, we must keep the peace in Great Britain. We did not in the past, I live in reiver country.

A salutary tale. Does this perhaps make me more sanguine about the breakup of Great Britain. Not exactly. I do think Great Britain may breakup. NATO and the USA would be fair amazed. This would delight some others. Some could see it as a judgement of God on a nation's faithlessness. In that it would be unfair to heap all the blame on the SNP. The behaviour of corporates in London business districts does alarm many. Something terrible went wrong in banking in the early years of the 20th century, it had probably been decades in the making since The Big Bang Boys. But what went wrong in London went wrong in Edinburgh too. RBoS is a dirty word. London in England, in Britain has proven able to pick itself up. Had RBoS purely been an Edinburgh institution it would have carried off a nation with it. Vote for an anti union party on May 7th and logic and history suggests you only have to wait.

How might I end this? I think as my father did. A Christian burial in a church in a coffin draped in the Union flag. Two hymns:  one from our wedding: "Be Thou my vision...................... "   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Be_Thou_My_Vision Old Irish. Celtic spirit. One from his funeral: "I vow to thee my Country........"   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Vow_to_Thee,_My_Country . Now you might think this turns me into some flag waver. Anyone who really knows me, knows I am nothing like that. My country is not the country of the English establishment, it is my Britain. Don't take it from me.

The neverendum lives

Unfortunately its the neverendum again! Last week Salmond said he accepted the democratic verdict, that was it for a "generation" and he resigned his jobs. Possibly the laws of fecundity are different north of the Border but this week it is a different story. Buoyed by the most amazing recruitment success in history which followed the SNP defeat (not kidding) AS now announces how it all hinges on next May. Be certain that if the SNP "win" next May, they will succede. It is very simple, either the SNP are voted out next May by the Scots or the Union collapses. Sounds extreme, please don't take my word for it. I am sure the Nationalists who follow this will confirm it. In turn everything will hinge on the Labour party reversing recent performance. There's a chance they will do this. A lot of folk may feel the SNP are pissing them around. Gordon Brown may be back on the trail clunking fist and all. But just before anyone moans about the undemocratic nature of the SNP strategy, bear in mind how Devo Max landed in the referendum campaign. So in short whichever way you feel, it all hinges on next May and that is assuming Devo Max is clearly being delivered by then (and English MPs for English votes IMHO). Personally I hope the wise people of Scotland will realise what is happening and give the SNP an electoral drubbing, otherwise change the flag after all. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/scotland-could-leave-uk-without-4301740 

BTW the paper story is slightly different to the online and includes a tweet from Jim Sillars which makes the gameplan utterly clear as does the Facebook page 45 https://www.facebook.com/wearethefortyfive?fref=ts which now has 163,000 likes.

The Union Lives!

A night that has thankfully made me proud to be British. The true victors of the night are our democracy and the people. Reflect that the four nations of the islands were up for allowing one of the nations the process by which they might choose to leave peacefully. In a fantastic turnout in Scotland, one which leaves no room to dispute the clarity of the results, the Scots have clearly said that, notwithstanding the challenges we all face (and we in Northumberland know all about this), they do not wish to become foreign to us. We can remain British. Narrow nationalism, we go our own way, has no place in these islands and the Scots have reaffirmed that. Proud patriotism, proud to be Scots and British has been reaffirmed. Going forward there is an incredible task. Westminster will now have to rise to the challenge. No-one has yet said there needs to be a Federal capital on the Irish Sea! I anticipate much change still to come but I do hope I never need see an independence referendum again and I note the commitment by the SNP to accept the result. I also note and thank everyone from many viewpoints who have come forward and argued the case on my Facebook timeline in the last few months. And since I joined him on the campaign trail for a day, I pay tribute to our Guy Opperman MP who from the position of being a close Border neighbour worked tirelessly with his colleagues in the Yes campaign because his constituents did not wish to see their friends and colleagues in a foreign land.

Some links  http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11090517/Rory-Bremner-on-Scottish-independence-Why-this-proud-Scot-has-a-very-big-but....html   Ewan Morrison use of the Trotsky parallel in his piece I found rather telling.

Verge of the Vote

Very nearly there now #indyref. I am looking beyond a No vote. This situation did not happen overnight. Learning more about Thatcher and the SNP in 1979 has made clear to me, that the Union has been going astray for decades and that this is largely down to Londoncentric Thatcher values. Years before, Scotland had been a (different type of) Tory heartland.  The resulting erosion of British pride has led to the logical outcome: I am Scots alone and I vote yes.  The HUGE question if there is a No is whether this situation can be recovered. I don't think simple Devo Max does it (and it will lead to situations in England and elsewhere not yet really thought through, it has been a tactic of desperation from No). Are we all ready to face up to a true Federal solution for these islands and a new Federal parliament located on the Irish Sea in North West England? Here is my prophesy: unless we are, the Union will end sometime. And if I am wrong and Yes wins, it is finished tomorrow.

Nigel Farrage

Today Nigel Farrage is in Scotland. I am sure there will be howls of anguish. Indeed I find signing up to UKIP beyond me. However if you are concermed for fair debate, it is worth trying (if possible) to listen to this contribution broadcast on Radio 4 at 0710. I will try to summarise it. Firstly he acknowledged that UKIP's own policy has changed. He accepted they had made the Westminster mistake that every government has made since the rejection of Gladstone's Home Rule Bill for Ireland (well I lament the loss of some of Ireland to the Union). He set out his total support for devo max and for a federal settlement for the entire Union and made clear that devolution has to involve English regions (and that the numerically large number of English do need to be thought about). He then suggested that had Alex Salmond a sensible plan for an independent Scotland with its own currency there would have been a credible prospect to vote on and if the Scots wanted it, then Farrage could not stand in their way. However what is on offer is a breath-taking prospect of abandoning the core elements of independence by either allowing RUK to dictate Scottish financial policy (with no Scottish central bank or currency) or jumping over to the Euro. Switching one set of "governors" for another. And become a very minor member of Europe rather than having the negotiating force of the UK. I have to hand it to Mr Farrage. He can put the issues very clearly. He suggested that since the UK outside Europe will be just about its largest trading partner, it would be they who would have to agree a trade deal. Europe will need the UK whether the UK is being governed from Brussels or not. This whole debate is about the right level of government across nations. I remain as I have been throughout a staunch Unionist believing that our union of four nations across one geographical group of islands has been a great sucess (on balance, not perfect but Great). I am not going to buy the Anti Imperialist line and would remind everyone our Commonwealth Games came to Scotland this summer. I hope it will again whatever happens next.

Border Controls

Both Fiona and myself listened to the overnight news with some incredulity. If the next tactic of No is very late in the day to offer a "timetable", it hands the victory to the SNP. They either win outright or they can say narrow victory lads but look what we achieved, better luck next time. In the last 10 days of the campaign and No looks totally on the back foot casting around for an idea.

To both our minds, the SNP campaign has been marked by a whole string of lies and bullying (one tactic being to accuse No of bullying and lies). I hear today Sturgeon plans to campaign on the NHS! That which they have been responsible for since 1997.

It is probably a good idea we are not in any position of authority. A shock like the appearance of "trialled border controls" to emphasize how serious this might be? Or the deployment of a royal message? On my Facebook timeline  the Yes campaigners simply do not believe the reality of Fermanagh I experienced in the 1990s and which I evidence with maps and photos (Aghalane A road bridge near Belturbet 1995 is the photo).  21 Scottish border crossings would be much easier to manage.

All along Yes have said we will get our own way, we will have the EU, we will have the pound, there will be no border impediments, and now in the last length, No appears to be confirming just that with the "timetable"!  There is (as there was 300 years ago) a soft and a hard side to this. The south is a vastly larger economic entity through which most of Scotland's own economic activity has to pass or inter-relate (e.g. banking), if Scotland cannot see it needs to be within that in order to influence matters, then perhaps some evidence of the cost of separation has to be "seen".  The border controls.   However I can well imagine this will not be seen as a practical route and so as of this morning, I am very fearful ths UK is history. It is why months ago I was saying a real gamechanger is needed: Liverpool, new capital of a Federal British Isles. Leave Westminster for the English.

Scottish referendum: the gamechanger?

I am fervently committed to the Union. So far evidence suggests it will be a yes vote to the Union (ironically branded as a No vote!) but perhaps rather close.

A close vote will hardly solve the matter.

Is there a gamechanger? An announcement from the Government which might really change the way many people think.

I think the situation needs a gamechanger.

Here is mine: an admission that there are challenges with the Union, challenges at least in part driven by the Greater London/Londoncentricity/ Westminstercentricity of the present. When Glasgow was the workshop of empire, when the North East was King Coal and the NW the cottonopolis of the world, these things were more balanced.

So what is the gamechanger? An expression that if Scotland votes for the Union, the Union members will work towards a new Union capital in Liverpool? At the centre of the Union and leave Westminster as an English parliament.

I know most folk will laugh at this, at least at first sight, but if the British government really want to demonstrate their committment to the future of the Union what else is on the cards as a gamechanger?